In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk will hold a Blue Jays-centric chat on 10-14-23 at 7:00PM CDT. to leave a question in advance. The Blue Jays scored only one run in their two Wild Card Series games with the Twins, capping off a season of offensive disappointment. With several position-player free agents perhaps on the way out of town, the Jays will try to retool and reinvigorate a shaky lineup. Guaranteed Contracts , SP: $101MM through 2028 (Berrios has opt-out clause after 2026 season) , SP: $70MM through 2026 , OF: $67.5MM through 2026 , SP: $42MM through 2025 , SS: $27.5MM through 2025 , SP, $10MM through 2024 , RP: $5MM through 2024 2024 financial commitments: $110.5MM Total future commitments: $323MM Option Decisions , 2B/OF: $18MM mutual option ($500K buyout) , RP: $27MM club option covering 2024-26 seasons (if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option for 2024; if both options are declined, Blue Jays can then exercise a $21MM club option covering the 2024-25 seasons) Arbitration-Eligible Players ( via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) (5.156): $3.2MM (5.084): $2.4MM (5.050): $5.2MM (4.157): $20.4MM (4.156): $3.3MM (4.129): $3.7MM (4.096): $2.7MM (4.051): $7.7MM (4.011): $1.4MM (3.149): $2.5MM (3.128): $5.5MM (3.047): $2.6MM (3.005): $800K Non-tender candidates: Cimber, Espinal Free Agents , , , , , , The Blue Jays finished 29th of 30 teams in stolen-base percentage, 27th in Fangraphs BsR metric (baserunning runs above average), tied for 26th in sacrifice flies, and tied for 28th in sac hits overall. Toronto also made the fifth-most outs on the bases of any club, while hitting into the fourth-most double plays. Combined with middle-of-the-pack numbers in homers and production with runners in scoring position, and it wasnt any surprise that the Jays had i sues consistently generating offense, despite respectable or even impre sive numbers in other offensive categories. It was a startling step backwards for a team that, if anything, looked to be relying on its offense to carry a seemingly shaky rotation heading into 2023. The offseason trades of and dont tell the whole story of the lineups decline, since while Gurriel replacement struggled badly at the plate, the Jays larger problem was that almost all of their returning hitters took steps backwards. Of every Blue Jays hitter who had at least 120 plate appearances for the team in both 2022 and 2023, only (from 97 to 103) improved his wRC+ over the two seasons. Several other regulars took drastic drops from 133 to 118, from 133 to 104, from 141 to 116, from 129 to 96, and from 120 to 93. The result was a season full of close, often low-scoring games that kept the Jays grinding from day one amidst the very competitive AL East race. As it turned out, the rotation (as well as a very good Clayton Allen Jersey bullpen and excellent defense) helped carry Toronto to another wild card berth, except just like in 2022, the Jays suffered a demoralizing two-game sweep. The Twins only needed to score five runs over the two WCS games to top the scuffling Jays lineup, with base-running mistakes from Guerrero and short-circuiting two of Torontos few po sible rallies. Some of the clubs better offensive performers are now hitting free agency, adding another layer of difficulty to the Blue Jays attempts to solve their hitting problems. One would imagine the Jays would have interest in re-signing and in particular, a suming Belt next season and foregoes retirement. However, since both players stayed relatively healthy, they might be looking to move on to more lucrative deals or preferred locations elsewhere. Kiermaier, for one, has his preference for playing on gra s fields, so he might opt to finally seek out a natural surface after 11 seasons on the artificial gra s in Tampa Bay and Toronto. is in the strange position of being both one of the winters top free agents, yet also a player with something to prove in 2024. Chapman displayed his typically excellent third-base glovework, yet hit a modest .240/.330/.424 with 17 homers in 581 plate appearances his 110 wRC+ was down from his 118 total in 2022. Moreover, almost all of Chapmans best offensive moments came in April, when he won AL Player of the Month honors. From May 1 onward, Chapman had a subpar 84 wRC+ in 467 PA, and was further bothered by a finger injury over the seasons last two months. With all this in mind, the Blue Jays might prefer to just receive draft pick compensation for Chapman, and let him walk in free agency rather than sign him to what will still very likely be a nine-figure free agent deal. The decision on is easier since the Jays wont be exercising their end of his $18MM mutual option, but if both Merrifield and Chapman leave, thats suddenly two starting infield positions to be filled. Since Varsho can take over center field for Kiermaier, that would leave third base, second base, left field, and DH as the open positions if all four of Belt, Kiermaier, Chapman, and Merrifield departed. For DH, the Jays might try to replace Belt with another left-handed hitter who could semi-platoon with Kirk, and po sibly seek out a lefty-swinger who could play more positions than just first base. In that scenario, the Blue Jays might not have a true regular DH at all, but instead use the spot to give multiple players half-days off. Rookie might also factor into the picture as an in-house left-handed bat who can play first base. (Since were talking designated hitters, cue the obligatory mention. As aggre sive as Toronto has been in pursuing free agents during GM Ro s Atkins tenure, it would count as a big surprise to see the Jays win the bidding for the record-setting contract it will take to land Ohtani.) Returning to internal options, the Blue Jays figure to go that route for one of second base or third base. s bat came back to reality in September, but the rookies hot start to his career has likely earned the mustachioed fan favorite a shot at at least a platoon job heading into Spring Training. Biggio probably did enough to preserve his roster spot, but hit poorly and looks like a non-tender candidate. Prospects , , and all look set to make their MLB debuts in 2024, with Martinez and Barger in particular candidates for something closer to everyday roles. Barger might ultimately be Torontos third baseman of the future, and while Martinez is a bit more of a question mark in regards to his eventual infield landing spot, his hitting potential is very intriguing. By contrast, Jimenez is a work in progre s hitting-wise, yet his glove will make him at least a backup middle infielder on a big league roster. The Blue Jays would probably prefer to devote just one position for some combination of their in-house players, leaving the other infield spot open for a big league regular. Infield-heavy teams like the Guardians, Cardinals, or even the division-rival Orioles could be fits as trade partners, and making a deal might be a preferred option for the Jays in finding a true upgrade since there isnt a lot of depth in either the or free agent markets. That being said, Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro that the team plans to at least match its $215MM payroll (and estimated $248MM luxury tax number, putting the Jays over the first tax line). With a good chunk of money coming off the books, this gives Toronto roughly $40-$45MM in spending capacity, and room to make another splashy move. Looking at the infield market, then, bringing or into the fold couldnt be ruled out. Candelario would be a longer-term signing, settling in at third base at least for a couple more seasons and then po sibly moving into a first base/DH capacity if his defense declines or if Barger emerges as a legitimate third base option. Turner could be an even better fit since hed only require a shorter-term contract as he enters his age-39 season, but Turner could slide between both corner infield slots and DH as circumstances dictate. It is also worth noting that the Blue Jays the last time that he was both a free agent and when the Jays last had a third-base vacancy. Left field seems like the obvious position for a new bat to be added, again probably a left-handed hitter given the righty tilt of Torontos lineup. or former Jays targets or could be fits, and the resurgent could be an option since the Jays will still be looking to keep their defense strong. The switch-hitting figures to get attention from Toronto and several other teams, since hell only cost a minimum MLB salary because the Yankees are paying the remainder of his 2024-25 salaries. If specifically left-handed hitting outfielders arent a must, then a reunion with Hernandez or Gurriel cant be ruled out. Hernandezs numbers dropped off in his first season in Seattle, which figures to lower his free-agent price tag to some extent even if the Mariners will probably still i sue him a qualifying offer. If Hernandez didnt get a QO but was still open to a one-year pillow contract as a way of elevating his profile for next winters free agent market, a return to Toronto might be feasible, as the Blue Jays in Hernandez back at the trade deadline. Turning to the pitching front, the Jays will likely still add an arm or two to the bullpen, though most of their relievers are still controlled in 2024. The hard-throwing will draw plenty of interest around the league, and if he doesnt re-sign, Toronto will look for someone else to bring some velocity to the back of the pen. Some level of extra rotation help will be needed, since the odds of that top four starters all remaining as effective and healthy as they were in 2023 is quite slim. But, for the first time in several seasons, the Blue Jays have the luxury of a mostly settled rotation. was a Cy Young Award candidate, and , , and were all very good to solid over the course of the year. For Berrios and Kikuchi in particular, they delivered tremendous bounce-back performances after struggling badly in 2022. pitched pretty well after returning from Tommy John surgery and could be a candidate to re-sign, but Ryu might be looking for a bigger contract than the Jays are willing to give considering how much money Toronto has already invested in its starters. The Blue Jays could look for couple of veteran innings-eater types to compete for the fifth starter job and to provide depth, with an eye towards promoting star prospect in the second half if Tiedemann pitches well at Triple-A. is still ostensibly the fifth starter heading into 2024, yet the right-hander is now an X-factor after his unusual 2023 campaign. Manoah had a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings, during a season that included a month-long stint at extended Spring Training to work on his mechanics, and no pitching appearances at all after August 10 due to unclear reasons, ranging from to with the organization. Its anyones gue s as to how Manoah will pitch next season, or perhaps even if hell pitch at all. If there are some behind-the-scenes i sues souring things, the Jays might prefer to part ways with Manoah altogether via trade. Naturally his trade value is low at the moment, but since Manoah was a Cy Young candidate just in 2022, several teams will have interest in exploring if a change of scenery can revive his career. Manoahs situation is uniquely abnormal, yet it relates to the larger uncertainty over the players the Blue Jays were counting on as cornerstones. Atkins has done a pretty solid job of adding productive free agents and trade pieces to this core group, but the Jays now face the increasingly worrisome po sibility that this core isnt as solid as once thought. To this end, in the same way that Hernandez and Gurriel were traded to change the Jays offensive shape last winter, would they consider again trading from their core to remake the lineup? It can be safely a sumed that Bichette and (for contract size alone) Springer arent going anywhere. Varsho and Kirk would each have some trade value but as sell-low type of players given their underwhelming batting numbers. Plus, moving Varsho or Kirk would then open up another position that the Blue Jays would have to addre s Varsho was basically always intended as Kiermaiers eventual replacement in center field, while Kirk is insurance at catcher since has had trouble staying off the injured list. As wild as this concept wouldve sounded two seasons ago, could Guerrero then be a trade chip? It would still be selling low in some regard, since Guerrero was only decent at the plate in 2023 and took a big step back defensively at first base. But, Guerreros youth, superstar profile, and his MVP-level numbers in 2021 still give him plenty of trade value, and there are surely lots of teams who will look at his metrics and think a turn-around is inevitable. Trading Guerrero could be seen as incredibly bold or as incredibly risky, and it might not be something the front office quite wants to consider just yet. For one, the Blue Jays might want to see how Guerrero and the other regulars might respond to a new hitting strategy, since rumors have swirled all season about the fate of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez. It has yet to be revealed how much (if any) overhaul is coming to the coaching staff, though that could be a logical way of making an internal shakeup since GM Ro s Atkins has already announced that manager John Schneider will be returning in 2024. Likewise, Shapiro announced that Atkins is returning, even if the president/CEO stated there needs to be a higher level of transparency and communication with our players in our preparation and game-planning proce s . How the Blue Jays will make these changes remains to be seen, but simply getting their hitters back to their 2022 form (even as inconsistent as that season was) would make a world of difference to the Jays going forward. Winning solves everything, as the cliche goes, but winning 89 games and making the postseason again wasnt enough to clear the atmosphere that seemed to grind the Blue Jays down as the season wore on. With Torontos fanbase becoming increasingly impatient for results, Atkins faces a pivotal offseason in determining how to fix the problems both on and off the field. Mikail Kamara Jersey