MIAMI -- Before last year's championship game between the Patriots and Rams, I ranked the other 10 playoff teams that fell short of reaching Super Bowl LIII by . I put the in first place. Before the season, when all of the NFL writers here at CBS Sports were asked to make their predictions, I At the halfway point of the season, we were asked to re-do our predictions. Once again, . So with Super Bowl LIV finally here and with the Chiefs having made it to this point after a 12-4 regular season followed by an unbelievable comeback in their playoff opener against the Texans and another come-from-behind win against the in the AFC Championship Game, both of which ended up being comfortable Chiefs wins despite their early deficits, I can't pick against the Chiefs now. I've been saying since last January that the Chiefs would win Super Michael Vick Jersey Bowl LIV. That doesn't make me smarter than anyone else. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to predict that , the best player in football regardle s of position, would lead his team to the Super Bowl. Take a look at our staff's season predictions we all made on the eve of the season. I certainly wasn't the only prognosticator to say the Chiefs would win the Super Bowl. Making obvious predictions can sometimes feel boring. But that doesn't make them wrong. Ever since their exit in last season's AFC Championship Game, which came down to an overtime coin to s, the Chiefs had the look of the next Super Bowl champion. Heck, it certainly felt like if they had made it to last year's Super Bowl, they would've vanquished the . They already had the head coach, quarterback, offense, and special teams required to take the next step. All they needed to do was marginally improve their defense. And that's exactly what they did under the guidance of new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, with the arrival of and also paying huge dividends. Now they're one win away from capturing their first Super Bowl since the 1969 season. Below, I'll explain why I think they'll beat and cover the 1.5-point spread against the . The Pick Six Podcast featuring Will Brinson broke down the gambling angles for the Super Bowl on Friday's blowout episode, with spread, total and prop picks from Pete Prisco and R.J. White, fun prop talk with Ryan Wilson and John Breech, plus DFS tips from Heath Cummings. Give it a listen below and be sure to: Chiefs vs. 49ers Time: 6:30 p.m. TV: FoxSpread:Chiefs -1.5 |Total:54.5Last week: 2-0Playoff record: 6-4Regular-season best-bets record: 43-41-1 Star Wars via Giphy Who should you back against the spread and on the money line in the Super Bowl? And what will the exact final score be? Visit SportsLine to, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated picks. I suppose we should start with the Chiefs' offense against the 49ers' defense because it's the most intriguing matchup in the game, seeing that the Chiefs have and the 49ers have the The Chiefs offense just dumped 51 on the in the divisional round, scoring touchdowns on seven straight po se sions to flip a 24-point deficit into a 20-point win, and 35 points on the Titans in the AFC Championship Game. It certainly feels like there isn't a defense capable of NFL Atlanta Falcons Jersey slowing down Mahomes, who is piecing together one of the best playoff runs by a quarterback in NFL history. In two games, Mahomes has completed 65.7 percent of his pa ses, averaged 8.8 yards per attempt, thrown eight touchdowns and zero interceptions, and accumulated a 131.5 pa ser rating in addition to rushing for 106 yards and a touchdown. If he finishes the job on Sunday, it'll go down the annals of all-time great postseason quarterback play. The 49ers defense, though, will be one of the biggest challenges of Mahomes' season. The 49ers have arguably the league's best defensive front -- , , , and -- allowing them to rush only four and keep seven back in coverage. They blitzed only 20.9 percent of the time, the fourth-lowest rate in football. That's obviously important. If the 49ers can generate pre sure without blitzing, they have a fighting chance. The problem is, Mahomes is immune to pre sure. He can throw out of any platform, change his arm angle to throw around obstructions, or elude pa s rushers with his athleticism. The 49ers defense has also struggled against mobile quarterbacks. In two games, rookie quarterback went 41 of 57 for 391 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for 101 yards and a score. In two games, quarterback went 49 of 74 for 465 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He also ran for 82 yards. In one game, quarterback totaled 206 yards and two touchdowns. Mahomes appears to be fully recovered from the knee injury that sidelined him for two starts. Christian Blake Jersey He's been killing defenses with his legs in recent weeks, both as a runner and as a pa ser outside the pocket. This run by Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) Now that Mahomes is actually healthy, he's fast enough to outrun your pa s rushers. Which means man coverage is dangerous because he might have an easy 15 yards in front of him. There's no "right" answer here. Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) Another "window creating" throw (push?) by Mahomes.This window does not exist for 99% of QB's. It just doesn't. There's a freaking linebacker in the way. It's witchcraft. Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) The 49ers defense is more than just its front four, of course. , the best cornerback of the past decade, remains one of the game's best cornerbacks. But this Chiefs offense is loaded with so many weapons -- from to to to to -- that Sherman alone can't take them out of the game. The point I'm trying to make here is that while I know the 49ers present a sizable challenge, I'm not really sure there's a defense in football that is capable of inducing a poor performance out of Mahomes, namely because Mahomes never plays bad games. Seriously. Here's the 2-season version of Pat Mahomes never has bad games new-age analytical (@benbbaldwin) Want more picks? Check out our , with 54 picks covering every aspect of the game, from the anthem to who scores first to the halftime show to how many yards the top players accrue to the MVP and more. One problem that plagued the Chiefs during the regular season was red zone efficiency. They scored a touchdown on only 54 percent of their red-zone trips, which ranked 20th. But they've gotten that i sue corrected when it matters. In two playoff games, they've scored touchdowns on nine of their 11 red zone trips. I think the Chiefs offense will get theirs. So, it'll come down to the 49ers offense being able to keep pace. I have my doubts. That's not intended to be a shot at the 49ers offense. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is probably the Matt Ryan Jersey league's second-best offensive mind behind only Chiefs coach Andy Reid. isn't in the same stratosphere as Mahomes -- not many quarterbacks, if any, are. The running game is key, because the Chiefs defense's weakne s is stopping the run. By DVOA, they're sixth against the pa s and . But they've also improved mightily against the run over the course of the season. In their first 10 games of the season, the Chiefs allowed 5.1 yards per carry -- the 10th game was a lo s to the Titans that saw rumble for 188 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. In their past eight games, including their two playoff wins, the Chiefs are allowing 4.4 yards per carry -- the eighth game was a rematch with the Titans in the AFC Championship Game that saw the Chiefs become the first team to hold Henry to under four yards per carry since the way back in Week 6. To keep up with Mahomes, the 49ers will probably need Garoppolo to play a far bigger role than he did in their blowout win over the , when he attempted eight pa ses all game long as ran wild for . Garoppolo has mostly played well against tough competition this season, but Marlon Davidson Jersey he'll be tested against a strong Chiefs pa s defense. I think the Chiefs are going to have chances to generate takeaways. For as good as Garoppolo was his season, he averaged an interception on 2.7 percent of his pa s attempts -- only six quarterbacks posted a higher interception rate. Those six quarterbacks? , , , , , and . He didn't really have an opportunity to throw the ball to the Packers, but he did throw a brutal pick to in the second quarter of the 49ers' win over the that could've led to a game-tying touchdown if didn't mi s on an easy out route. Earlier in that game, he tried to throw an interception, but Kendricks dropped it. If the Chiefs can get a lead and the 49ers are forced to let Garoppolo sling it, there will be chances for takeaways. I gue s in more simple terms, I'm taking the Chiefs to win and cover because the gap in quarterback play is too substantial. The only way I see the 49ers winning is if their defense shuts down Mahomes, but again, that almost never happens. With Mahomes as the starter in 35 games (including the postseason), the Chiefs have scored fewer than 21 points once. I'd rather bet on Mahomes doing what he always does and Garoppolo making a few mistakes as he tries to keep pace. I don't think it'll be a blowout. The 49ers are too good to get blown out. But I do think the Chiefs will win by a touchdown. Prediction: Chiefs 31, 49ers 24 Pick: Chiefs -1 Who should you back against the spread and on the money line in the Super Bowl? And what will the exact final score be? Visit SportsLine to, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.