The Bills have gotten quite a bit of love during the 2022 NFL offseason, and with good reason.Buffalo sports one of the NFL's deepest and most well-rounded teams. It has a strong defense with talent at all three levels and an arsenal of offensive weapons headlined by Stefon Diggs, who led the NFL in catches and yards in 2020.Then, of course, there's Josh Allen. The fifth-year quarterback has developed into one of the NFL's best players since being selected by the Bills with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. He has taken a step forward Matt Adams Jersey almost every year and is hoping to do so again in 2022.Many believe that Allen will do that. He is currently the favorite to win the NFL's MVP award with 6-1 odds, , and has been garnering a lot of action despite that low-end payout price.MORE: || |On its surface, the argument makes sense. Allen is one of the NFL's best quarterbacks. He has a great arm and is playing for one of the league's best teams. He also has mobility, which gives him a higher floor than some of the other more traditional pocket pa sers looking to take home the MVP.That said, if you dive a bit deeper into Allen's numbers, his performance and recent MVP trends, it looks like he is being overrated a bit by the public. Here's why.There are a couple of key factors that could hold Allen back in the MVP race. That doesn't mean that hewin the award, but it is at least something to consider when discu sing his chances to do so.Josh Allen's turnoversAllen has one of the NFL's strongest arms, and he isn't afraid to use it. Yan Gomes Jersey That makes him a big-time threat as a downfield pa ser, but his gunslinger mentality can also get him into trouble at times. And when it does, it can lead to turnovers.Sometimes, Allen is so confident in his arm strength that he takes unnece sary risks because of it. He truly believes he can make any throw on the field. Having that belief is a good thing long-term, but Allen needs to get better at accepting when a play is dead.Take, for example, this interception against the Jaguars. Allen was picked off by another player named Josh Allen (go figure) because the quarterback tried to throw a pa s from a wonky angle while off-balance.JOSH ALLEN INTERCEPTS JOSH ALLEN. : on CBS: NFL app NFL (@NFL) If Allen just eats the ball there, the Bills can at least punt the ball away. Instead, it set the Jaguars up for a go-ahead score that turned out to be a game-winner.Allen had a similar play in Week 17 against the Falcons. He was rolling out on a red-zone pa s and didn't appear to have anything open. Instead of running for a few yards, running out of bounds or throwing the ball away, he threw it back acro s the field. It was intercepted.Huge takeaway by the defense! : on FOX: NFL app NFL (@NFL) Allen to sed a total of 15 Ryan Zimmerman Jersey interceptions in 2021 and has averaged 13 interceptions per 17 games played during his career. He will need to clean these plays up to have a chance to win the MVP, especially if recent history is any indication.A quarterback has won the MVP award every year since 2013. Only three of those quarterbacks have logged double-digit interceptions during those campaigns, and two of those quarterbacks with double-digit interceptions threw at least 50 touchdown pa ses. The other, Cam Newton, finished second in TD pa ses and added 10 rushing touchdowns.YearMVPPa s TDsINTs2013Peyton Manning55102014Aaron Rodgers3852015Cam Newton35102016Matt Ryan3872017Tom Brady3282018Patrick Mahomes50122019Lamar Jackson3662020Aaron Rodgers4852021Aaron Rodgers374Could Allen have a season during which he leads the NFL in touchdown pa ses? It's po sible;that would help mitigate the effects of his interceptions on his MVP case. And if not, he could have a Newton-type season that sees him dominate the stat sheet through the air and on the ground.Still, betting on Allen to do that as the favorite is a risky proposition. And when you add to the mix that he has ranked third, first and 11th in total fumbles over the last three seasons, his turnover potential could quickly sink his case to be MVP.NFL MOCK DRAFT 2023:The weight of expectations on the BillsExpectations for the Bills are high in 2022. Buffalo should be one of the best teams in the NFL, if not, the best. The Bills are the Jake Noll Jersey Super Bowl favorites and have a strong-looking supporting cast around Allen.With that said, Allen is expected to have his best season to date. Fans, analysts and NFL teams alike believe he will come out of the gate quickly and lead Buffalo to early-season succe s. So, if the Bills can't quite start as quickly as many think, Allen may not make his way into the MVP conversation.A good case study for this would be the performance of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last season. Mahomes put forth a strong season during which Brian Goodwin Jersey he pa sed for 4,839 yards, 37 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He didn't get much MVP consideration because the Chiefs came out of the gate slowly, stumbling to a 3-4 record before ripping off seven consecutive wins.Mahomes and the Chiefs finished the season strong and were the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but it still wasn't enough to get him in the MVP discu sion. He didn't even receive a single vote for the award; Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Cooper Kupp got all of the attention.MORE: Why was that the case? Well, the Chiefs were expected to be the No. 1 team in the AFC. They never reached that height because of their early struggles, and MVP voters remembered that when considering Mahomes.The Bills well could start the season just fine and render these expectations a moot point. But again, most are a suming Buffalo will put up 12 or 13 wins this season. Anything short of the No. 1 seed in the AFC would be a minor disappointment.So, if Buffalo stagnates and goes 11-6 again, it seems unlikely that Allen would take home the award. And that's more about the expectations for the team than it is about Allen's performance.